German 10-year Bund yield (DE10Y) closes at or above 3.45% on September 30, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Investing.com by September 30, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 30. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The German 10-year Bund yield stands at 3.51% on September 17, 2026 (+25 bp month-on-month, +79 bp year-on-year). The ECB deposit rate is currently 2.50%, with an active Cassandra prediction pointing to a hike to 2.75% on October 29, 2026. Eurozone inflation was 3.2% in August 2026 (Eurostat). This combination — ongoing ECB rate hike cycle, elevated inflation, rising yield trend through September — argues that the 10Y yield will not fall more than 6 basis points to below 3.45% by month-end. No direct Polymarket market; no existing Cassandra prediction on this instrument. Own calibration: 65%.
Data basis for this prediction
- TradingTools / Trading Economics: DE10Y Rendite 17.09.2026 = 3,51 %; +25 bp MoM, +79 bp YoY
- Eurostat Flash-Schätzung Eurozone-VPI August 2026: 3,2 % (Veröffentlicht 1.09.2026)
- EZB-Einlagenzins aktuell 2,50 % — nächste Erhöhung auf 2,75 % am 29.10.2026 (Cassandra-Prognose aktiv)
- Investing.com DE10Y Historical Data — Referenz für Verifikation am 30.09.2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die 10-jährige Bundesanleiherendite lag am 30. September 2026 klar über der Schwelle von 3,45 %. Laut Cbonds-Index (Germany 10Y YTM Bund) betrug die Rendite am 30.09.2026 ca. 3,475 %; Investing.com weist für den benachbarten Handelstag (29.09.2026) sogar 3,618 % aus; eine am 30.09.2026 emittierte Bundesanleihe (Bund10, Fälligkeit 15.08.2036) wurde mit 3,58 % Rendite platziert. Alle verfügbaren Datenpunkte liegen 3–17 Basispunkte über der Prognose-Schwelle. Die Vorhersagegrundlage – laufender EZB-Zinserhöhungszyklus, Inflation >3 %, bereits erhöhtes Rendiveniveau – erwies sich als tragfähig; ein Renditerückgang um mehr als 6 bp bis Monatsende trat nicht ein. Quellen: cbonds.com/indexes/208, investing.com/rates-bonds/germany-10-year-bond-yield-historical-data, deutsche-finanzagentur.de.
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