The Democratic Party (USA) wins a majority in the US House of Representatives after the Midterm elections (3 November 2026), securing at least 218 of 435 seats (confirmed by AP or Reuters)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket shows 86% probability for Democrats winning the House; $9M traded (as of 26 July 2026). Projections: Democrats 232 vs. Republicans 203 seats. Historical basis: the incumbent president's party loses ~26 seats on average in midterms (1946–2022); Republican majority after 2024 was only ~220–221 seats (buffer: ~3 seats). Kalshi shows similar Democratic lead; Senate race remains separate and closer. Structural risks: gerrymandering in GOP-controlled swing states. Slight downward deviation from Polymarket (86%) due to residual gerrymandering uncertainty.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026 = 86% (26.07.2026, $9 Mio. gehandelt)
- kucoin.com/KuCoin News: Prediction Markets – Democratic House Takeover 86%, GOP Senate Edge ~51% (Juli 2026)
- covers.com: 2026 Midterm Election Odds Tracker – Demokraten Haus-Favoriten
- Brookings Institution: Historische Midterm-Verluste der Präsidenten-Partei Ø -26 Sitze (1946–2022)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
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Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.