🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Democratic Party wins majority in US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (at least 218 seats, Election Day November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. October 2026 · Predicted for 4. November 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

Polymarket sees 91.5% for a Democratic House majority (as of October 23, 2026); Kalshi likewise at 91.0%. Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races toward Democrats on October 9, 2026, projecting a net gain of 9-19 seats (only +5 needed). Drivers: Trump approval below 40%, rising gas prices following the Iran conflict (Feb. 2026), and Republican budget rejection in swing districts. Historically, the opposition party gains an average of 26 seats in the first midterm. Current composition: Democrats 213, Republicans 222.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 91,5% (Stand 23. Oktober 2026, polymarket.com)
Kalshi: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 91,0% (Stand 23. Oktober 2026, kalshi.com / defirate.com)
Cook Political Report: 18 House-Rennen zu Demokraten verschoben, Nettowon +9 bis +19 Sitze projiziert (9. Oktober 2026)
Aktuelle Sitzverteilung: Demokraten 213, Republikaner 222 (Stand Oktober 2026, cnbc.com)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Demokraten gewannen die Mehrheit im US-Repräsentantenhaus (Projektion >218 Sitze, geschätzt ~259). Bestätigt durch CBS News, Yahoo News und NBC News am Wahlergebnistag (3./4. November 2026).

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