🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (election day November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 7, 2026)
Probability
90%
Polymarket currently prices Democrats' chances of winning the US House majority at 93% (as of September 27, 2026). The broader 'Balance of Power' breakdown shows: Democratic Sweep of both chambers at 63%, 'R Senate / D House' scenario at 29%, Republican Sweep at 8%. Historical base rate: the sitting president's party loses seats in the House in 18 of 20 midterm elections — with a current Republican majority of only ~5–8 seats, this is an extremely fragile starting position. The Senate race is more competitive (forecasts approximately 51% Democrats / 49% Republicans) and is assessed separately. The robust structural midterm tendency toward the opposition party and Polymarket's market pricing of 93% form the basis of this forecast.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 93 %, Republikaner 8 % (Stand 27.09.2026)
- Polymarket 'Balance of Power 2026 Midterms': Democrat Sweep 63 %, R Senate/D House 29 %, R Sweep 8 % (Stand 27.09.2026)
- Historische Basisrate AP/Cook Political Report: 18/20 Midterms → Sitzverlust der Präsidentenpartei im Repräsentantenhaus
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Die Demokratische Partei gewann die Mehrheit im US-Repräsentantenhaus bei den Midterm-Wahlen am 3. November 2026. NBC News projizierte mindestens 258–259 Sitze für die Demokraten (netto +41 Sitze, 43 geflippte Sitze) – ein Ergebnis, das NBC News als vollständige Kontrolle beider Kammern durch die Demokraten bezeichnete. Hakeem Jeffries wird voraussichtlich neuer Speaker. Sowohl NBC News als auch AP bestätigten das Ergebnis innerhalb der Frist (vor dem 7. November 2026). Quellen: NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/house-results), Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/4/democratic-party-gains-us-house-majority-in-2026-midterm-elections), CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026/).