Democratic candidate wins the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election (USA) on 3 November 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Incumbent Josh Shapiro won by +14.8pp in 2022 and holds ~58-60% approval. PA governors may serve two consecutive terms; Shapiro's first term ends January 2027. His likely re-election bid and a projected 2026 midterm environment favorable to Democrats (per existing predictions) supports a Democratic victory. Cook Political Report expected to rate 'Likely Democrat'. No active Polymarket market found.
Data basis for this prediction
- Josh Shapiro PA Governor-Wahlsieg 2022: +14,8% über Mastriano (Pennsylvania Secretary of State, 2022)
- Shapiro Zustimmungsrate: ~58–60% (aggregierte Polls, 2026)
- Cook Political Report – PA Governor 2026 Einschätzung erwartet (Cook Political, 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.