Democrats win the majority in the US Senate at the Midterm elections (3 November 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by 5 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket and Kalshi show Democrats as slight favourites for Senate control (~51% as of early September 2026) — for the first time leading in this cycle. The probability rose ~11 points recently following US military involvement in Iran. Of 35 seats up, Republicans hold 23; Democrats need a net gain of 4. Generic congressional ballot (August 2026): Democrats +8. This prediction is consistent with the open 'Democratic Sweep' and House majority predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'Democrats win Senate 2026' ~51 % (Stand: Anfang September 2026)
- Kalshi: US Senate control market ~51 % Demokraten (Stand: Anfang September 2026)
- Federal News Network: 'Latest prediction markets – which party will win Senate?', August 2026
- 270toWin / Race to the WH: 2026 Senate predictions und Sitzverteilung, September 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.