🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Democrats win the majority in the US Senate at the Midterm elections (3 November 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by 5 November 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 5. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

52%

Polymarket and Kalshi show Democrats as slight favourites for Senate control (~51% as of early September 2026) — for the first time leading in this cycle. The probability rose ~11 points recently following US military involvement in Iran. Of 35 seats up, Republicans hold 23; Democrats need a net gain of 4. Generic congressional ballot (August 2026): Democrats +8. This prediction is consistent with the open 'Democratic Sweep' and House majority predictions.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 'Democrats win Senate 2026' ~51 % (Stand: Anfang September 2026)
Kalshi: US Senate control market ~51 % Demokraten (Stand: Anfang September 2026)
Federal News Network: 'Latest prediction markets – which party will win Senate?', August 2026
270toWin / Race to the WH: 2026 Senate predictions und Sitzverteilung, September 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. NBC News projizierte den Demokratischen Sieg im US-Senat (Quelle: nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/senate-results), und CBS News bestätigte ebenfalls die demokratische Mehrheit nach den Wahlen vom 3. November 2026. Die Demokraten gewannen sogar deutlicher als erwartet: Sie flippten 7 Sitze (benötigt wurden nur 4) und halten nun 54 Mandate gegenüber 44 republikanischen. Historische Upset-Siege gelangen in Texas (erstmals seit 1994 demokratisch), Kansas, North Carolina und South Carolina. Die Bestätigung durch NBC News erfolgte innerhalb des vorgesehenen Zeitfensters bis 5. November 2026.

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