🏛️ Politics · Next Year

Democrats win majority in the US House of Representatives at the midterm elections (November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

40%

Historically, the incumbent president's party loses an average of 26 House seats in midterms (Congressional Research Service); in 18 of 21 midterms since 1934, the governing party lost seats. The ongoing US-Iran military conflict (confirmed NPR, Al Jazeera, September 2026) and economic tensions are likely to generate discontent against the governing party. The existing open Cassandra forecast covers only the Senate (GOP holds majority); the House is uncovered. No direct Polymarket market available; own estimate based on historical base rate (~65% of midterms result in House flip against governing party) weighed against current political headwinds: ~40%.

Data basis for this prediction

NPR: US-Iran-Konflikt – Xi Ägypten-Besuch, geopolitische Lage September 2026 (3. September 2026)
Congressional Research Service: Historische Midterm House-Ergebnisse 1934–2022
Polymarket: Republikanische Partei hält US-Senat 2026 (offene Referenz-Vorhersage, Stand 2026)
Al Jazeera: US-Iran-Militärlage und Naher Osten Sicherheitsarchitektur (3. September 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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