Democrats win the US Senate majority at the midterm elections (November 3, 2026, confirmed by Associated Press or CNN by election night November 4, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket shows for the 2026 Midterms (c. August 2026): Democrats sweep both chambers 50%, Republican Senate + Democratic House 34%, Republican sweep 12%, other 4%. This implies a Democratic Senate victory probability of approximately 54%. Kalshi shows Democrats at ~55% for Senate control (August 2026). Cook Political Report identifies five toss-up Senate seats (PA, WI, AZ, NV, GA), all slightly Democratic-leaning in the latest polls. The existing Cassandra forecast covers the House; this prediction covers the Senate as a separate resolution.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Balance of Power 2026 Midterms': D-Sweep 50%, R-Senate+D-House 34%, R-Sweep 12% (Polymarket, ca. August 2026)
- Kalshi 2026 Midterms: Democrats win Senate ca. 55% (Kalshi, August 2026)
- Cook Political Report: 5 Toss-up-Senatssitze (PA, WI, AZ, NV, GA) — leicht demokratisch in neuesten Polls (August 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.