Democrats win the US Senate majority in the 2026 midterm elections (November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Kalshi prices Democrats at ~51% for Senate majority (September 2026), Polymarket at ~52% — a genuine toss-up. Republicans must defend 26 Senate seats (vs. 9 Democrats); historical midterm headwinds for the governing party favor Democrats. Cook Political Report moved Texas and Iowa to 'toss-up' on August 20, 2026 (total: 7 toss-up seats including Georgia/Ossoff, Pennsylvania/McCormick seat, Wisconsin/Johnson). In the House, Democrats lead clearly (~85%, separate open prediction), but the Senate map is structurally more favorable for Republicans.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Demokraten Senatsmehrheit ~51% (Stand Sep. 2026)
- Polymarket: Demokraten Senatsflip ~52% (Balance-of-Power-Market, 3. Sep. 2026)
- Cook Political Report: Texas und Iowa neu als Toss-up – 7 Toss-up-Sitze gesamt (20. Aug. 2026)
- Kalshi: Demokraten Haus-Mehrheit ~85% vs. Senat ~51% – unterschiedliche Dynamik (Sep. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.