Democrats win the US Senate majority in the 2026 midterm elections (November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Kalshi prices Democrats at ~51% for Senate majority (September 2026), Polymarket at ~52% — a genuine toss-up. Republicans must defend 26 Senate seats (vs. 9 Democrats); historical midterm headwinds for the governing party favor Democrats. Cook Political Report moved Texas and Iowa to 'toss-up' on August 20, 2026 (total: 7 toss-up seats including Georgia/Ossoff, Pennsylvania/McCormick seat, Wisconsin/Johnson). In the House, Democrats lead clearly (~85%, separate open prediction), but the Senate map is structurally more favorable for Republicans.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Demokraten Senatsmehrheit ~51% (Stand Sep. 2026)
- Polymarket: Demokraten Senatsflip ~52% (Balance-of-Power-Market, 3. Sep. 2026)
- Cook Political Report: Texas und Iowa neu als Toss-up – 7 Toss-up-Sitze gesamt (20. Aug. 2026)
- Kalshi: Demokraten Haus-Mehrheit ~85% vs. Senat ~51% – unterschiedliche Dynamik (Sep. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.