Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections (3 November 2026, confirmed by Associated Press or CNN by election night 4 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket prices Democrats at 89.5% to win the House majority (late August 2026). Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterms; with Donald Trump in the White House since January 2025, this structural headwind is particularly strong. Democrats need only a net gain of 3–5 seats; the generic ballot shows +4–7 points in their favour. Balance-of-Power scenarios: 51% Democratic Sweep, 36% R-Senate/D-House, 12% R-Sweep. Own calibration at 88% — slightly below Polymarket to price in low-probability reversal scenarios.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'Which party will win the House in 2026?' — Demokraten 89,5 % (Stand August 2026, polymarket.com)
- ProEdgeX / Polymarket Analytics: Balance of Power 2026 Midterms — D-Sweep 51 %, D-House 89,5 %
- Generic Ballot Polling Aggregate: Demokraten +4–7 Punkte (Ende August 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
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