Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections (3 November 2026, confirmed by Associated Press or CNN by election night 4 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
·
Predicted for 3. November 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
Polymarket prices Democrats at 89.5% to win the House majority (late August 2026). Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterms; with Donald Trump in the White House since January 2025, this structural headwind is particularly strong. Democrats need only a net gain of 3–5 seats; the generic ballot shows +4–7 points in their favour. Balance-of-Power scenarios: 51% Democratic Sweep, 36% R-Senate/D-House, 12% R-Sweep. Own calibration at 88% — slightly below Polymarket to price in low-probability reversal scenarios.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'Which party will win the House in 2026?' — Demokraten 89,5 % (Stand August 2026, polymarket.com)
- ProEdgeX / Polymarket Analytics: Balance of Power 2026 Midterms — D-Sweep 51 %, D-House 89,5 %
- Generic Ballot Polling Aggregate: Demokraten +4–7 Punkte (Ende August 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.