DAX (XETRA) closes above 25,200 points on 18 July 2026
Miss
โฆ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
ยท
Predicted for 18. July 2026
ยท
Based on: Ongoing Event
DAX closed at 25,114 on July 14 (+0.19%). Positive US earnings support sentiment: Goldman Sachs Q2 +7.66% EPS surprise (~45%), BofA +8% EPS beat. S&P 500 expected above 7,550 on July 18 per existing prediction; DAX historically correlates at ~0.75โ0.85 to S&P. A gain of 86 points (+0.34%) is required. Headwinds: EUR/USD at 1.1430 pressures exporters; Hormuz escalation weighs on energy-intensive industries. No Polymarket quote for DAX.
Data basis for this prediction
- Trading Economics: DAX Schlussstand 14.07.2026: 25.114 Punkte (+0,19 %)
- Alphastreet: Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 EPS $20,98 vs. Konsens $14,46, Aktie +7,66% (14.07.2026)
- BofA IR: Bank of America Q2 2026 EPS $1,21 vs. $1,12, Nettogewinn +27% YoY (14.07.2026)
- Trading Economics: EUR/USD 1,1430 (14.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] DAX am 17. Juli 2026 bei ca. 24.728โ24.755 Punkten; 25.000 Punkte laut Medienberichten 'nicht erreichbar'. Am Samstag kein Xetra-Handel. Schwelle 25.200 wurde nicht erreicht. Quelle: finanzen.net, onvista.de (17. Juli 2026).
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a ฯ range of roughly ยฑ5.5% by month-end โ the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 โ an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.