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Daryz defends Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe title at ParisLongchamp (October 5, 2026)
Probability
40%
Daryz (trainer Francis-Henri Graffard, jockey Pierre-Charles Boudot, by Sea the Stars) won the 2025 Arc and dominated 2026 with wins in the Prix Ganay, Prix Aga Khan IV, and Prix Foy; only defeat was 3rd in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot. Bookmaker odds (Oddschecker aggregate, Oct 1, 2026) of 7/4 imply ~40% win probability – he attempts to become the first Arc back-to-back winner in 48 years. Main rivals: Maltese Cross (7/2–5/1) and Kalpana (5/1, King George winner). Daryz acts on any going, a key edge in unpredictable Paris autumn conditions. Own calibration slightly below bookmaker-implied due to historically rare successful title defences.
Data basis for this prediction
- Buchmacherquoten (Oddschecker-Aggregat, Stand 1. Oktober 2026): 7/4 Daryz, 7/2–5/1 Maltese Cross, 5/1 Kalpana, 9/1 Diamond Necklace
- Racing Post: Bestätigte Meldungen Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2026, ParisLongchamp (1. Oktober 2026)
- France-Galop.com: 'Daryz gives Aga Khan family record eighth Arc victory' – Siegerprofil 2025
- Oddschecker Insight-Analyse (1. Oktober 2026): 'Daryz the most likely winner but 7/4 is short for a horse trying to end a 48-year run'
Verdict: Hit
Daryz gewann den Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2026 in ParisLongchamp tatsächlich und verteidigte erfolgreich seinen Titel – als erster Hengst seit Alleged 1977/78. Trainer Francis-Henri Graffard bestätigt, jedoch ritt nicht Pierre-Charles Boudot, sondern Mickael Barzalona. Das Ergebnis: 1. Daryz, 2. Bay City Roller, 3. Diamond Necklace; Kalpana kam lediglich auf Platz 5. Die Kerneinstufung der Vorhersage (Titelverteidigung) ist klar eingetreten. Quellen: racingpost.com (2026 Arc full result), skysports.com ('Daryz becomes first colt since 1978 to retain Group 1 crown'), washingtontimes.com ('Daryz wins Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe for second straight year').