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Copa CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026 Quarterfinal: Cienciano (PER) advances to the semifinal on aggregate (return leg vs. Montevideo City Torque URU, September 17, 2026, Estadio Centenario, Montevideo, confirmed by CONMEBOL.com by September 18, 2026)
Probability
65%
Cienciano (Cusco, Peru) won the first leg 2-0 on September 10, 2026 at Estadio Inca 'Garcilaso de la Vega' (Cristián Souza 29', Maximiliano Amondarain 42'). The return leg on September 17 at Estadio Centenario (Montevideo) poses a historically very difficult task for Montevideo City Torque: a 3-0 win is needed to advance directly, or 2-0 to force penalties. Historically, away teams with a 2-0 aggregate lead advance in CONMEBOL knockout stages with >85% probability. Cienciano would be making their first-ever CONMEBOL semifinal. Aggregated bookmaker odds imply ~67% for Cienciano advancing.
Data basis for this prediction
- Hinspiel 2:0 (Cienciano – Montevideo City Torque), 10. September 2026 – Cooperativa.cl / Infobae
- Rückspiel 17. September 2026, Estadio Centenario – beinsports.com/en-us (Stand 13. September 2026)
- Aggregierte Buchmacherquoten ~67 % für Cienciano-Aufstieg (Stand 13. September 2026)
- Copa Sudamericana 2026 QF-Spielplan – CONMEBOL.com / gol.conmebol.com
Verdict: Miss
Die Vorhersage trat nicht ein. Montevideo City Torque gewann das Rückspiel am 17. September 2026 im Estadio Centenario mit 3:0 (Tore: Salomón Rodríguez 38', 57'; Nahuel Da Silva 90'+2) und überholte Cienciano damit im Gesamtresultat (3:2). Cienciano schied aus – trotz des 2:0-Hinspielergebnisses. Montevideo City Torque schaffte exakt die (laut Vorhersage 'historisch kaum lösbare') Aufgabe eines 3:0-Siegs. Quellen: https://larepublica.pe/deportes/2026/09/17/cienciano-vs-montevideo-city-torque-en-vivo-cuartos-de-final-copa-sudamericana-2026-482096 | https://www.elobservador.com.uy/futbol-internacional/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cienciano-vivo-la-copa-sudamericana-el-equipo-mendez-va-la-remontada-n6057645