Conference Board US Consumer Confidence September 2026 Stays Below 91.0 Points (Release September 29, 2026, confirmed by Conference Board or Bloomberg by September 29, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.4 in August 2026 (−0.8 vs. July). The Expectations sub-index at 68.2 has remained below the recessionary threshold of 80.0 for 18 consecutive months. Exceeding 91.0 in September would require a +1.6 point rise. Headwinds: persistent tariff uncertainty under the Trump administration, high consumer credit rates, weak housing market. Tailwinds: strong S&P 500 (7,742 on September 25, 2026) and robust labor market (Initial Claims most recently 197,000). Conflicting forces cap a strong recovery. Kalshi still prices macroeconomic recession risk as material. Forecast: ~63% probability of staying below 91.0.
Data basis for this prediction
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence August 2026: 89,4 Punkte (advisorperspectives.com, Aug 2026)
- Expectations Index August 2026: 68,2 (unter Rezessionsschwelle 80 seit Feb 2025)
- S&P 500 am 25.09.2026: 7.742,09 Punkte; Initial Claims Woche 19.09.: 197.000 (Reuters)
- Veröffentlichungstermin: 29.09.2026, 10 Uhr ET (Conference Board)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index September 2026: 94,2 Punkte (veröffentlicht 29. September 2026). 94,2 liegt klar über der Schwelle von 91,0. Quelle: FXStreet / Conference Board.
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