Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index September 2026 falls below 87.0 (release September 29, 2026, confirmed by Conference Board or Bloomberg by September 29, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Conference Board Consumer Confidence stood at 89.4 in August 2026 — weakest since January 2026 and below consensus of 90.3. The Expectations sub-index has remained persistently below the recession warning threshold (80.0) since February 2025, at 68.2. Concurrently, the UMich September 2026 preliminary came in at 47.8 (near all-time low), with year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.6%. The Fed's rate hike to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026 will further dampen consumer mood and purchasing power. A decline below 87.0 would represent approximately 2.7 additional points of deterioration; plausible given the sentiment backdrop, though the Present Situation sub-index was still rising in August (+6.8). No direct Polymarket/Kalshi anchor available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence August 2026: 89,4 Punkte (vs. Konsens 90,3), schwächster Wert seit Januar 2026 (investinglive.com, 26.08.2026)
- Conference Board Erwartungsindex August 2026: 68,2 Punkte (unter Rezessionsschwelle 80 seit Februar 2025)
- UMich Preliminary September 2026: 47,8 Punkte, Inflationserwartungen 4,6 % (University of Michigan, 12.09.2026)
- Fed-Leitzinserhöhung auf 3,75–4,00 % am 16.09.2026 (Reuters)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index September 2026: 94,2 Punkte. 94,2 liegt klar über der Schwelle von 87,0. Quelle: FXStreet / Conference Board, veröffentlicht 29. September 2026.
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