🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ, François Legault) wins fewer than 10 seats in the Nationalversammlung at the Québec provincial election on October 5, 2026 (confirmed by Élections Québec by October 6, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. October 2026 · Predicted for 5. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

82%

338Canada (as of October 1, 2026) projects 0 seats for the governing CAQ — despite ~23% vote share, which yields nothing in the first-past-the-post system without concentrated strongholds. qc125.com also forecasts fewer than 5 CAQ seats. The PQ leads with 26% and ~66 projected seats toward a majority government (majority threshold: 64). No prediction market offers a direct CAQ seat bet; models are consistent. The 18% counter-probability accounts for possible vote concentration in CAQ strongholds such as Terrebonne or Lévis, and model uncertainty. The result is independently verifiable: it would represent the steepest collapse of a majority party at the provincial level in Canadian history in generations.

Data basis for this prediction

338Canada Quebec: 0 CAQ-Sitze projiziert bei 23 % Stimmenanteil (Stand 1.10.2026)
qc125.com / The Writ (Éric Grenier): CAQ unter 5 Sitze erwartet (28.9.2026)
CP24: Québec Wahlkampf letzte Woche — PQ führt mit 26 %; CAQ Kollaps (28.9.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage trat ein: Die CAQ gewann bei der Québec-Provinzwahl am 5. Oktober 2026 exakt 0 Sitze (Schwelle: <10 Sitze). Trotz ~13 % Stimmenanteil (ca. 572.000 Stimmen) blieb die Partei vollständig ohne Mandat. Parteichefin Christine Fréchette (Legault hatte zuvor das Ruder abgegeben) verlor auch ihren eigenen Wahlkreis Trois-Rivières. Die PQ (Paul St-Pierre Plamondon) gewann 59 Sitze — knapp unter der Mehrheitsschwelle von 64 — und bildete eine Minderheitsregierung. Die Liberalen kamen auf 40, die Konservativen auf 19 und Québec solidaire auf 9 Sitze. Quellen: [CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/parti-quebecois-victory-quebec-election-2026-9.7370571), [Wikipedia EN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election), [Wikipedia FR](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_g%C3%A9n%C3%A9rales_qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9coises_de_2026).

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