📈 Economy · Next Week

China NBS official Manufacturing PMI July 2026 (July 31, 2026) prints at 50.0 points or above — first expansionary reading since March 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

37%

China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5 in June 2026 — four consecutive months below 50. Caixin Manufacturing PMI June: 49.7. The US-China trade truce of June 2026 (US tariffs 30%, Chinese counter-tariffs 10%) stabilizes export expectations. China's State Council announced auto and electronics sector support measures in July. A move to 50.0+ requires a +0.5pt jump — possible, but structural domestic demand weakness (property sector) remains a headwind.

Data basis for this prediction

NBS Manufacturing PMI China Juni 2026: 49,5 Pkt. (NBS/Reuters, 30. Juni 2026)
Caixin Manufacturing PMI China Juni 2026: 49,7 Pkt. (Caixin, 1. Juli 2026)
US-China-Handelswaffenstillstand: US-Zölle 30%, CN-Zölle 10% (Mayer Brown, Juli 2026)
China Staatsrat: Stützungsmaßnahmen Automobil/Elektronik (Xinhua, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der offizielle NBS Manufacturing PMI Chinas für Juli 2026 wurde am 31. Juli 2026 mit 49,2% veröffentlicht – ein Rückgang von 1,1 Prozentpunkten gegenüber dem Vormonat und klar unter der Expansionsschwelle von 50,0. Die Vorhersage (≥50,0) wurde deutlich verfehlt. Laut FXStreet und dem chinesischen Statistikamt (NBS) lasteten vor allem eine schwache Konsumgüternachfrage (Sub-Index 47,8%), hohe Produktionsbasisbasis aus den Vormonaten sowie saisonale Flaute in Teilen der Industrie auf dem Ergebnis. Auch der Non-Manufacturing PMI enttäuschte mit 49,0%. Quellen: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-nbs-manufacturing-pmi-falls-to-492-in-july-non-manufacturing-pmi-eases-to-490-202607310131 | https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202607/t20260731_1964253.html

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