China NBS Manufacturing PMI July 2026 (release July 31, 2026, NBS Beijing): reads 50.0 or above (expansion zone)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The PBoC is forecast in an existing Cassandra prediction to cut the 1-year LPR by ≥10bp by August 20 — signaling sustained stimulus pressure. China's manufacturing sector has oscillated around the 50 expansion threshold repeatedly since 2025; fiscal support programs and improved global trade sentiment favour a slightly expansionary July reading. NBS PMI is traditionally released on the last working day of the reporting month. No Polymarket market for this data point found; 52% reflects the historical frequency of PMI readings ≥50 in comparable economic phases.
Data basis for this prediction
- NBS China: PMI-Veröffentlichungskalender (stats.gov.cn, letzter Werktag des Monats)
- Trading Economics: China Manufacturing PMI Verlauf 2025–2026 (tradingeconomics.com)
- Reuters: China Stimulus-Maßnahmen und PBoC-Lockerungen 2026 (reuters.com)
- FXStreet: China NBS PMI monatlicher Überblick 2026 (fxstreet.com)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der tatsächliche NBS Manufacturing PMI für Juli 2026 betrug 49,2 – ein Rückgang von 1,1 Prozentpunkten gegenüber Juni (50,3) und damit klar unterhalb der Expansionsgrenze von 50. Die Vorhersage (≥ 50) ist somit nicht eingetreten. Hauptgründe laut NBS: saisonale Produktionsruhephasen in Teilen des verarbeitenden Gewerbes, schwache Binnennachfrage sowie ein hoher Vergleichsbasiseffekt aus dem Vorquartal. Auch der Non-Manufacturing PMI enttäuschte mit 49,0. Quellen: NBS (stats.gov.cn, 31.07.2026), FXStreet, China Daily, SMM.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.