Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) September 2026 Remains in Contraction Below 50.0 (MNI Markets, Release September 30, 2026, confirmed by MNI or Bloomberg by September 30, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. September 2026
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Predicted for 30. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Chicago PMI plunged from 57.6 (July) to 47.1 in August 2026 — a monthly loss of 10.5 points, the lowest reading year-to-date. The Conference Board Expectations Index at 68.2 has remained below the recessionary threshold of 80 since February 2025. Returning to expansion (>50) would require a +2.9 point jump — historically atypical within one month after such a sharp drop. Structural factors (weak Midwest industrial orders, elevated inventories, Fed rate at 4.25%) favor continued contraction. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi markets for this indicator; estimate based on historical PMI persistence after -10-point shocks (~70% remain below 50 the following month).
Data basis for this prediction
- MNI Chicago Business Barometer August 2026: 47,1 Punkte (tradingeconomics.com, 26.09.2026)
- Rückgang Juli→August 2026: 57,6→47,1 = −10,5 MoM (advisorperspectives.com, Aug 2026)
- Conference Board Expectations Index August 2026: 68,2 (unter Schwelle 80 seit Feb 2025)
- Veröffentlichungstermin September-PMI: 30.09.2026, MNI Markets
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Identisches Ergebnis: Chicago PMI September 2026 = 58,8 Punkte, deutlich über der 50er-Grenze. Kontraktionszone nicht erfüllt.
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