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📈 Economy · Next Month

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. USD 3.10 per share (August 1, 2026, pre-market)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 1. August 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
70%

Chevron benefits from significantly higher oil prices: Brent closed at $91.10/bbl on July 21, 2026 (+2.11% vs. prior day). Geopolitical risk premium from the Iran-US conflict and Hormuz tensions has kept energy commodities elevated since Q1 2026. Chevron's integrated business model (upstream, LNG, downstream) benefits disproportionately. Q2 EPS consensus approx. $3.10. No Polymarket market for CVX; calibration 70% based on crude oil level and historical beat rate (>75%).

Data basis for this prediction
  • Brent-Rohöl 91,10 USD/Bbl am 21. Juli 2026 (+2,11 % ggü. Vortag) (Forbes Advisor, 21. Juli 2026)
  • WTI 84,29 USD/Bbl am 21. Juli 2026 (Forbes Advisor, 21. Juli 2026)
  • US-Iran Ceasefire + Hormus-Spannungen (CNBC, 26. Juni 2026; Reuters, Juli 2026)
  • CVX Q2-Meldetermin: ca. 1. August 2026 vor Börseneröffnung (CVX Investor Relations)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Chevron berichtete am 31. Juli 2026 (statt wie angenommen am 1. August) ein bereinigtes EPS von 6,06 USD je Aktie – gegenüber einem Wall-Street-Konsens von ca. 5,56 USD, also ein klares Beat (+0,50 USD). Der tatsächliche Konsens lag damit allerdings deutlich höher als die in der Vorhersage angenommenen 3,10 USD (möglicherweise ein veralteter Pre-Hess-Übernahme-Schätzwert). Der Brent-Durchschnittspreis für Q2 2026 lag bei ca. 104 USD/Bbl (gegenüber 91,10 USD am Vorhersagetag), was die Upstream-Gewinne massiv antrieb. Chevron erzielte einen Rekordgewinn von 12 Mrd. USD bereinigt (+51 % Umsatz YoY). Die Kernaussage der Vorhersage – Chevron übertrifft den EPS-Konsens – trat eindeutig ein; der genannte Konsenswert von 3,10 USD war jedoch stark unterschätzt. Quellen: Chevron IR / BusinessWire (20260731), Yahoo Finance, TradingKey.
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