🏛️ Politics · Next Week

CDU wins more than 18.0% of votes cast in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (20 September 2026, confirmed by the Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

73%

All current polls place CDU consistently at 20%: INSA (18 Sept) 20%, FG Wahlen/ZDF (17 Sept) 20%, Infratest dimap/ARD (10 Sept) 20%, dawum.de average 20.0%. The 18% threshold sits two percentage points below the polling average, well within the historical margin of error for German state elections. In Berlin's 2021 election, CDU (22.6% final) outperformed polls (18–21%). CDU's core electorate in affluent western districts (Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Reinickendorf) and structural over-representation of older voters underpin the result. No Polymarket market available; own estimate based on historical polling error distribution.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage Berlin 18.09.2026: CDU 20 % (wahlrecht.de)
FG Wahlen/ZDF-Umfrage Berlin 17.09.2026: CDU 20 %; Infratest dimap/ARD 10.09.2026: CDU 20 %
dawum.de Berlin Gewichteter Schnitt Stand 18.09.2026: CDU 20,0 %
Berliner Wahl 2021: CDU 22,6 % Ergebnis vs. 18–21 % Umfragen (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)

Verdict: Hit

Die CDU erzielte bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis des Landeswahlleiters 18,8 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – damit übertraf sie den Schwellenwert von 18,0 % klar. Quellen: ZDFheute (zdfheute.de), Tagesspiegel interaktiv (interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de), Wikipedia-Artikel zur Wahl 2026. Die CDU verlor gegenüber 2023 (28,2 %) deutlich und landete auf Platz zwei hinter der Linken (25,7 %), blieb aber über dem vorhergesagten Mindestwert.

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