⚽ Sports · Next Week

Carlos Alcaraz (ESP, seed no. 2) advances to the third round of US Open 2026 (by approx. 2 September 2026, confirmed by USTA or ATP)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 2. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

82%

Alcaraz is the defending US Open champion and, following Jannik Sinner's withdrawal (knee injury, 2026 Wimbledon winner), enters as the #2 seed. Alcaraz missed competition since April 2026 due to a wrist injury and returns for the US Open. Polymarket: 32% title probability; bookmakers list him at 6/4 (~40% implied). The probability of merely winning rounds 1 and 2 — against typically much lower-ranked opponents in a now-wider draw — is ~82% despite wrist uncertainty. Tennis365: 'The draw is open enough for several contenders to believe New York could belong to them.'

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Alcaraz 32 % US-Open-Titelchance, Zverev 20 % (tradetheoutcome.com / polymarket.com, Stand 25.08.2026)
Tennis365 / Yahoo Sports: US-Open-Seeds 2026 – Zverev Nr. 1, Alcaraz Nr. 2 (FAA Nr. 3, Djokovic Nr. 4); Sinner-Rücktritt wegen Knieverletzung (Stand 25.08.2026)
Yahoo Sports: 'US Open Tennis Odds 2026: Alcaraz the Overwhelming Favorite After Jannik Sinner's Withdrawal' (Stand 25.08.2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Carlos Alcaraz schied in der 2. Runde der US Open 2026 gegen Jaime Faria (Portugal) aus und erreichte die 3. Runde nicht. Sein ATP-Punktestand fiel von 7.160 auf 5.210 (nur 50 Punkte für R2-Exit). Quelle: Wikipedia 2026 US Open Men's Singles Draw, ATP Tour.

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