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Carlos Alcaraz (ESP, seed 2) wins his US Open 2026 third-round match and advances to the fourth round (September 4, confirmed by USTA or ATP)
Probability
87%
Alcaraz won his second-round match on September 2, 2026 against Jaime Faria 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 — after a weak first set, he dominated the next three convincingly. As the no. 2 seed, he typically faces a player outside the top 25 in round 3. Polymarket sees Alcaraz at 38% to win the title (Zverev 21%). A top-2 seed losing before round 4 is a rare event (~13% historical frequency). The existing platform prediction 'Alcaraz reaches the semifinal' presupposes advancing through round 4 as a necessary condition.
Data basis for this prediction
- ATP Tour / usopentennisinfo.com: US Open 2026 R2 — Alcaraz d. Faria 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 (2. September 2026)
- Polymarket: US Open Men's Winner — Alcaraz 38%, Zverev 21% ($16,5 Mio. Handelsvolumen, Stand 2. September 2026)
- WTA/USTA: US Open 2026 Draw & Schedule (Stand September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Carlos Alcaraz besiegte Wu Yibing (China) in der dritten Runde der US Open 2026 am 4. September 2026 mit 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 und zog souverän in die vierte Runde ein. Quelle: CBS Sports US Open 2026 Live Results (cbssports.com) und ESPN Scoreboard (espn.com/tennis).