📈 Economy · Next Week

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 (released August 1, 2026) registers at 50.0 or above (expansion territory)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 1. August 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

53%

The Caixin PMI (focused on private and export-oriented SMEs, compiled by S&P Global) is conceptually distinct from the NBS PMI (state-owned large firms, separate open forecast). Caixin hovered around the 50-point mark in Q1/Q2 2026. New export orders benefiting from the US-China trade deal (Section 301 tariffs cut to 12.5%, confirmed by Reuters/USTR). Bloomberg consensus ~50.3. Risk: ongoing domestic weakness in the Chinese property market.

Data basis for this prediction

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI Trend H1 2026: um 50-Marke (S&P Global/Caixin Media, Stand Juli 2026)
US-China Trade Deal: Section-301-Zölle auf 12,5 % reduziert (Reuters/USTR, Juli 2026)
Bloomberg Konsens Caixin PMI Juli 2026: ~50,3 (Stand Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Der (nun als 'RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI' firmierende) Caixin/S&P-Global-PMI für Juli 2026 wurde am 1. August 2026 mit 50,9 Punkten veröffentlicht – klar in der Expansionszone (>50). Damit ist die Vorhersage (≥50 Punkte) eingetroffen. Der Wert lag sogar über dem Bloomberg-Konsens von ~50,3. Einzige nennenswerte Abweichung zur Vorhersagebegründung: Der Index wurde Mitte 2025 von 'Caixin' in 'RatingDog' umbenannt, nachdem eine Shenzhen-Ratingfirma die Namensrechte von S&P Global erworben hatte; Methodik und Erhebungskreis (private/exportorientierte KMU) blieben unverändert. Quelle: InvestingLive – 'China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI eases to 50.9, eighth month of growth' sowie S&P Global Press Release (pmi.spglobal.com).

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) beats Q2 FY2027 EPS consensus of approx. -$0.45 per share — earnings report November 9, 2026 after close

Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.

60%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 9. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) beats Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus of $3.90 per share — earnings report November 9, 2026 before market open (confirmed by Constellation Energy Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET)

Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.

68%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 9. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) beats Q3-FY2027 EPS consensus of $0.64 per share — earnings report November 19, 2026 before market open (confirmed by Walmart Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET)

Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 19. Nov 2026