📈 Economy · Next Week

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 (released August 1, 2026) registers at 50.0 or above (expansion territory)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 1. August 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

53%

The Caixin PMI (focused on private and export-oriented SMEs, compiled by S&P Global) is conceptually distinct from the NBS PMI (state-owned large firms, separate open forecast). Caixin hovered around the 50-point mark in Q1/Q2 2026. New export orders benefiting from the US-China trade deal (Section 301 tariffs cut to 12.5%, confirmed by Reuters/USTR). Bloomberg consensus ~50.3. Risk: ongoing domestic weakness in the Chinese property market.

Data basis for this prediction

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI Trend H1 2026: um 50-Marke (S&P Global/Caixin Media, Stand Juli 2026)
US-China Trade Deal: Section-301-Zölle auf 12,5 % reduziert (Reuters/USTR, Juli 2026)
Bloomberg Konsens Caixin PMI Juli 2026: ~50,3 (Stand Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Der (nun als 'RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI' firmierende) Caixin/S&P-Global-PMI für Juli 2026 wurde am 1. August 2026 mit 50,9 Punkten veröffentlicht – klar in der Expansionszone (>50). Damit ist die Vorhersage (≥50 Punkte) eingetroffen. Der Wert lag sogar über dem Bloomberg-Konsens von ~50,3. Einzige nennenswerte Abweichung zur Vorhersagebegründung: Der Index wurde Mitte 2025 von 'Caixin' in 'RatingDog' umbenannt, nachdem eine Shenzhen-Ratingfirma die Namensrechte von S&P Global erworben hatte; Methodik und Erhebungskreis (private/exportorientierte KMU) blieben unverändert. Quelle: InvestingLive – 'China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI eases to 50.9, eighth month of growth' sowie S&P Global Press Release (pmi.spglobal.com).

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