📈 Economy · Next Week

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI August 2026 (release September 1, 2026): Index above 50.0 (expansion zone, confirmed via Caixin/S&P Global or Reuters)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. August 2026 · Predicted for 1. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

53%

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI covers mainly small-to-mid private companies and export-oriented sectors, historically diverging +1.5 to +2.5 pts above the NBS PMI (state enterprises). Per existing prediction, the NBS PMI stays below 50. Caixin showed repeated moderate expansion in H1 2026 (average 51.4 per Reuters). China's export demand from ASEAN and the Global South supports the private sector. The 50.0 threshold is deliberately moderate. Implied consensus probability based on historical divergence: ~53%.

Data basis for this prediction

Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI H1 2026: Durchschnitt 51,4 (Reuters, Juni 2026)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Juli 2026: 49,4 – Kontraktion (bestehende Vorhersage konsistent)
Caixin vs. NBS-Divergenz historisch: +1,5 bis +2,5 Pkt. zugunsten Caixin (S&P Global Archiv)
Reuters China PMI Preview Aug 2026: ASEAN-Exportaufträge stützen privaten Fertigungssektor

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Caixin China Manufacturing PMI August 2026 bei 51,5 Punkten, über 50,0 Punkten (Expansion). Neue Aufträge 15. Monat in Folge gestiegen. Quelle: RTTNews / Caixin-S&P Global, 1. September 2026.

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