🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen pass the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026, confirmed via Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

42%

Current INSA polls (August/September 2026) show Grünen in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at exactly 5% — right at the threshold. This makes the prediction close to a coin flip, priced at slightly below 50%. In eastern Germany, the Greens historically face polling compression: at the 2021 MV state election they received 4.5% and missed entry. East German polls tend to slightly overestimate the Greens. At the same time, the federal trend since the Ampel coalition shows a slightly stabilizing Green core electorate. Net probability: 42%.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage MV: Grüne 5 % (wahlrecht.de / dawum.de, August/September 2026)
MV-Landtagswahl 2021: Grüne 4,5 % – Sperrklausel verpasst (Wikipedia / Landeswahlleiter MV)
t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026, neue Umfrage zeigt SPD-Aufholjagd (August/September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Grünen erhielten bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 exakt 5,7 % der Stimmen und überschritten damit klar die 5-%-Sperrklausel. Sie zogen mit 5 Sitzen in den Landtag ein. Die historische Schwäche der Grünen in Ostdeutschland (2021: 4,5 %) trat diesmal nicht ein; die Vorhersage war korrekt. Quellen: Vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis des Landtags MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), Wikipedia (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026), wahlrecht.de (https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2026/landtagswahl-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026.html).

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026