Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fail to pass the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and do not enter the Schwerin Landtag (confirmed by MV Landeswahlleiter or tagesschau.de)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The most recent INSA poll (August 13, 2026, n=1,000) shows the Greens in MV at exactly 5% — up 1pp from the previous poll, but still right on the threshold. With a margin of error of ±2–3pp, failure is well within reach. The Greens are structurally weak in eastern Germany (2021 MV result: 4.7%; 2016: 4.8% — both narrowly failed). In the current Cassandra system, FDP and BSW in MV are already forecast to fail; the Greens are the fourth party near the 5% line.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA-Umfrage MV (Erhebungszeitraum 4.–11.8.2026, veröffentlicht 13.8.2026): Grüne 5 %
- t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 Wahlumfrage – SPD zittert mit zwei Parteien (August 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election – Greens at 5% (Stand 2.9.2026)
- Wikipedia: 2021 MV state election – Grüne 4,7 % (Ergebnis)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.