🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen achieves more than 5.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and enters the state parliament, confirmed by the Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

33%

Latest INSA polls show the Greens at exactly 5% in MV (as of June 2026), gaining +1 point from earlier surveys (t-online.de, August 2026). The party is right at the parliamentary threshold. In the 2021 state election, the Greens narrowly missed with 4.4%. In eastern German rural states, Green support is structurally low; the trend can still shift before September. This prediction deliberately goes against the dominant East German trend: the razor-thin 5% mark makes this a genuine bet.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA Umfrage MV: Grüne bei 5 % (t-online.de/dawum.de, Juni 2026)
Landeswahlleiter MV: Grüne 4,4 % bei Landtagswahl 2021 (wahlen-mv.de)
t-online.de: 'Schwesigs SPD bangt mit zwei Parteien' — Grüne bei exakt 5 % (August 2026)
wahlrecht.de: Umfragenübersicht Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl 2026

Verdict: Hit

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen erzielten bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 exakt 5,7 % der Zweitstimmen und zogen mit 5 Sitzen (von 71) in den Landtag ein. Die 5-%-Hürde wurde damit klar überschritten. Quellen: Vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis des Landtags MV (landtag-mv.de), wahlrecht.de, Wikipedia (de/en).

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