Alliance 90/The Greens receive more than 5.5% of votes at the Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026) and enter the Landtag
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Infratest dimap (Aug 24–25, n=1,511) found 6% support for the Greens in Saxony-Anhalt — up 1 point from the July 30 poll. This puts them clearly above the 5% threshold, though with limited margin. In recent eastern German elections, Greens have typically underperformed their final polls by 0.5–1.5pp. Still, at 6% with ~2pp margin of error, entry into the Landtag is more likely than failure. No conflict with existing Saxony-Anhalt predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap Sachsen-Anhalt-Umfrage: Grüne 6%, +1 Pp. (dawum.de / Infratest dimap, 26. August 2026)
- Sachsen-Anhalt-Landtagswahl 2021: Grüne 5,9% (Landeswahlleiter ST)
- Ostdeutschland-Effekt: Grüne Thüringen 2024 → 3,2%; Sachsen 2024 → 5,1% (historische Vergleichsdaten)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Grüne erzielten 7,7–9,0 %, mehr als 5,5 %, und zogen in den Landtag ein. Quelle: ZDF-Hochrechnung, wahlrecht.de
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.