🏛️ Politics
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Bulgarian presidential election (October 25, 2026) goes to runoff on November 1, 2026
Probability
89%
Bulgaria holds a presidential election on October 25, 2026 under a two-round system: only an absolute majority (>50% of valid votes) prevents a runoff on November 1. Since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 1992, in 100% of all Bulgarian cases a runoff has been required — the multi-party system structurally precludes a first-round decision. Main candidates in 2026 per current reports are incumbent Iliana Iotova and opposition candidate Andrey Gyurov; polls show no candidate above 40%. No Polymarket market available; implied probability based on historical base rate: >90%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Sofia Globe: Bulgaria sets October 25 date for 2026 presidential elections, runoff November 1 (29. Juli 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Bulgarian presidential election — Kandidaten Iotova vs. Gyurov, Wahlsystem Zwei-Runden
- Historische bulgarische Präsidentschaftswahlen 1992–2021: Stichwahl in 100 % aller sieben Wahlen (Wikipedia/Reuters)
- Reuters: Bulgaria presidential candidates and polling overview, September 2026
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Bei der bulgarischen Präsidentschaftswahl am 25. Oktober 2026 erhielt Amtsinhaberin Iliana Yotova 34,76 % und Oppositionskandidat Andrey Gyurov 31,95 % der Stimmen – kein Kandidat erreichte die nötige absolute Mehrheit (>50 %). Die Stichwahl zwischen beiden findet plangemäß am 1. November 2026 statt. Auffällig war die Rekord-Niedrigwahlbeteiligung von nur ~21,9 %. Quellen: Sofia Globe (https://sofiaglobe.com/2026/10/26/yotova-gyurov-to-face-off-in-bulgarian-presidential-election-run-off-partial-results/), Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/25/bulgaria-election-heads-to-a-run-off-amid-low-voter-turnout), Radio Bulgarie / BNR (https://bnrnews.bg/fr/post/548053/presidentielle-resultats-apres-depouillement-de-100percent-des-proces-verbaux).