🏛️ Politics · Next Month

BSW fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by MV State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 1. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

70%

BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) polls at only 4% (INSA/Nordkurier, Aug 4-11, 2026) or 4% (Infratest dimap, July 6, 2026); PolitPro trend (September 1, 2026): 4.1%. This places BSW clearly below the 5% threshold. By comparison, the identical situation is documented in Saxony-Anhalt (simultaneous election on September 6). Main risk (−30%): Sahra Wagenknecht personal campaign appearances in the final sprint can mobilize +1-2 percentage points (established from Thuringia/Saxony 2024 elections). A BSW result of 5.0-6.0% is possible if the party mobilizes late. Forecast is compatible with existing MV predictions (FDP fails, Greens fail) — no substantive duplicate.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA/Nordkurier MV-Umfrage (4.–11. August 2026): BSW 4 %
Infratest dimap MV (6. Juli 2026): BSW 4 %
PolitPro Trend MV (1. September 2026): BSW 4,1 %, projizierter Einzug: nein
Polymarket: AfD gewinnt MV-Wahl 89 % (1. September 2026, $617K Volumen)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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