BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter the Schwerin parliament
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls for the MV state election consistently show BSW at approximately 4%, clearly below the 5% threshold (bundestagwahlumfrage.de, dawum.de, t-online.de). The FDP is at 2–3%, also without a realistic chance. Historically, a catch-up of more than one percentage point for a minor party in the final weeks is possible but unlikely. Confirmed by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state electoral authority or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- bundestagwahlumfrage.de MV 2026: BSW ~4 %, unter der 5-%-Sperrklausel
- t-online.de MV-Wahl 2026: 'BSW würde mit vier Prozent an der Fünfprozenthürde scheitern'
- dawum.de/Mecklenburg-Vorpommern/ September 2026: Wahltrend BSW unter 5 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.