🏛️ Politics · Next Month

BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and does not enter parliament (confirmed by the state electoral authority of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

68%

According to the latest polls from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, BSW is clearly in the danger zone: Forsa/t-online (August 11, 2026) and Infratest dimap for NDR (July 9, 2026) each show BSW at 4%, while INSA (June 22, 2026) measured 6% as the highest recent reading. The trend shows stagnation without visible tailwind. BSW lacks a strong party infrastructure in MV, and the party's national profile is fading. No Polymarket market available; calibration based on poll data and the historical 'last mile' effect for small parties.

Data basis for this prediction

Forsa/t-online (11. Aug. 2026): BSW MV 4% (wahlrecht.de / t-online.de)
Infratest dimap für NDR (9. Jul. 2026): BSW MV 4% (wahlrecht.de)
INSA (22. Jun. 2026): BSW MV 6% – höchster gemessener Wert, seitdem rückläufig (wahlrecht.de)

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,8 % und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5%-Sperrklausel. Die Partei zog nicht in den Landtag ein. Quellen: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026 sowie bpb.de (‚Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026: AfD stärkste Kraft, CDU verfehlt Einzug in den Landtag'). Die Vorhersage traf damit vollständig zu — BSW blieb unter der Hürde, konsistent mit den Umfragetrends, die das Partei auf 4 % sahen. Bemerkenswert: Auch die CDU scheiterte mit 4,9 % knapp.

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