BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus (Berlin state election, September 20, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
BSW polls at 3.5-4.0% in all current Berlin surveys: PolitPro tracker (Sept 4, 2026) shows 3.8%, Infratest dimap likewise below 5%. Urban western-German Berlin lacks the structural base for a BSW late surge. No Polymarket market available; given the 1.2-1.5pp gap below the threshold, probability of failing the hurdle is estimated at ~79%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro.eu Berlin Wahltrend 4.9.2026: BSW 3,8 %
- dawum.de Berlin Sonntagsfrage: BSW unter 5 % (Stand 5.9.2026)
- ipsos.com/de-de: Umfrage Wahl Berlin 2026 — kein klarer Favorit, BSW marginal (September 2026)
- t-online.de: Wahlumfrage Berlin 2026 — BSW deutlich unter 5 %-Schwelle (5.9.2026)
Verdict: Hit
BSW erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', PolitPro, wahlen-berlin.de) 4,7 % der Zweitstimmen und verfehlte damit die 5-%-Sperrklausel um 0,3 Prozentpunkte. BSW zog nicht in das Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Die Vorhersage trat exakt ein: Die Umfragewerte von 3,8–4,0 % unterschätzten das Endergebnis leicht, dennoch reichte es nicht zur Überwindung der Hürde.
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