🏛️ Politics · Next Month

BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) wins more than 7.0% of votes at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

55%

BSW achieved 11–16% at 2024 eastern German state elections (Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg). No current MV-specific polls were found; based on eastern German voter-structure patterns, BSW tends well above 5%. The 7% threshold clears the electoral threshold but sits below typical BSW results in comparable eastern states. No prediction market available; classified speculative. Existing Cassandra MV predictions cover only AfD, SPD, and CDU.

Data basis for this prediction

BSW ostdeutsche Landtagswahlen 2024: 11–16% in Sachsen, Thüringen, Brandenburg (Landeswahlleiter / tagesschau.de)
MV-Landtagswahl: 20. September 2026; keine aktuellen MV-Umfragen in Recherche verfügbar
Bestehende Cassandra-Prognosen MV: AfD stärkste Partei, >32%; SPD >27%; CDU >10% (intern, kein BSW-Eintrag)

Verdict: Miss

BSW erzielte laut amtlichem Ergebnis (Quelle: Wikipedia/Landtagswahl MV 2026, wahlrecht.de) nur 4,8 % der Zweitstimmen und verfehlte damit sowohl die vorhergesagten 7 % als auch die 5-%-Sperrklausel. Die Vorhersage scheiterte daran, dass BSW den Rückenwind der Erst-Teilnahme aus 2024 (11–16 % in Sachsen, Thüringen, Brandenburg) bis 2026 weitgehend verloren hatte. Das Protestwähler-Potenzial wanderte überwiegend zur AfD (38,2 %), während BSW mit CDU (4,9 %) fast gleichauf lag und knapp unter der Hürde blieb.

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