📈 Economy · Next Month

Brent crude oil (ICE front-month) closes above USD 100.00 per barrel on September 30, 2026, for the first time since October 2022

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. September 2026 · Predicted for 30. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

44%

Brent closed at $97.41 on September 8 (+46.7% YoY; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41). Only 2.7% separates Brent from the $100 mark. Key drivers: active US-Iran conflict since February 2026 (Strait of Hormuz tanker war, ballistic missile attacks on US ships), supply disruptions from IRGC infrastructure strikes. A possible Fed hike on September 16 could strengthen the USD and temporarily suppress oil. No open platform prediction covers the September 30 $100 close.

Data basis for this prediction

Trading Economics: Brent Crude Oil $97,41/Barrel, +46,7 % YoY, 52W-Hoch $126,41 (8. September 2026)
Al Jazeera Iran War Liveblog: aktiver US-Iran-Tanker-Krieg, Straße von Hormus (September 2026)
globalsecurity.org Iran War 2026 OPREP – Eskalation US-Iran militärisch (September 2026)
Offene Plattformvorhersage: Brent >$92,00 am 30. September 2026 (kompatibel)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der ICE Brent Front-Month schloss am 30. September 2026 bei ca. 98,03 USD/Barrel (Dezember-Kontrakt, neuer Benchmark nach Auslaufen des November-Kontrakts). Zwar schloss der auslaufende November-Kontrakt noch bei 103,50 USD, doch der rollierte kontinuierliche Front-Month (Dezember) lag knapp unter 100 USD. Bestätigt durch den Robinhood-Prediction-Market ('Brent >100,50 am 30.9. um 17:00 EDT' = 4 Cent Schlusskurs → nicht eingetreten). Ursache: Erholung der Nahostexporte ('Middle East crude exports reached a war-time high', 16,3 Mio. Barrel/Tag im September laut Kpler/Reuters) komprimierte den Geopolitik-Aufschlag und drückte den rollierenden Front-Month am Stichtag unter die 100-USD-Marke. Intramonatlich war die 100-USD-Marke längst überschritten (Brent: ~107 USD Mitte September), aber nicht zum geforderten Schlusstermin am 30.9. Quellen: riotimesonline.com (30.9./1.10.2026), Robinhood Prediction Market.

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