Brent crude oil (ICE front-month contract) closes above $105.00 per barrel on October 31, 2026 (confirmed by ICE or Bloomberg by October 31, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Brent crude was at $103.83/barrel (−0.94%) on September 18, 2026, pulled by opposing forces: Saudi-Houthi tensions and supply uncertainty support prices, while fresh Saudi crude supplies provided modest pressure. Closing above $105 on October 31 requires only +1.1% from current levels. The Metaculus Long Forecast model projects an October 2026 opening of $99.10, average of $103.49, and closing price of $105.24 — placing $105 near the model median. Supporting factors: ongoing Middle East conflicts (Iran-Israel, Houthis in Red Sea), OPEC+ production discipline, seasonal autumn demand pickup, and the existing year-end forecast 'Brent above $108 on Dec 31, 2026'. Counterweights: potential US-Iran détente (Muscat talks), higher US output. Polymarket WTI markets active with $6M volume; no specific Brent $105 market found. Estimated probability: 52% based on Metaculus median.
Data basis for this prediction
- Brent Crude Spot 18.9.2026: 103,83 USD/Barrel, –0,94% (CNBC, 18.9.2026)
- Metaculus Long Forecast Brent Oktober 2026: Eröffnung 99,10 USD, Durchschnitt 103,49 USD, Schluss 105,24 USD (metaculus.com / Trading Economics, Sept 2026)
- CNBC Oil Prices Today: Saudi-Houthi-Spannungen vs. zusätzliche Saudi-Lieferungen (cnbc.com, 18.9.2026)
- Polymarket WTI Crude Oil Markets: $6 Mio. USD aktives Volumen (polymarket.com, 18.9.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Brent Rohöl schloss am 31. Oktober 2026 bei ca. 113,40 USD/Barrel (Quelle: globaloilshock.com, Stand 31.10.2026 06:07 CET) – deutlich über der Schwelle von 105,00 USD. Weitere Bestätigungen: am 29. Oktober 2026 lag der Preis bei 115,40 USD (Fortune), am 30. Oktober bei 120,15 USD (countryeconomy.com). Der gesamte Oktober 2026 verlief durchgängig weit über 105 USD, mit Tageskursen zwischen ~114 und ~135 USD. Haupttreiber war offenbar der 2026 Iran-Krieg (Wikipedia: 'Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war'), der die Geopolitik-Risikoprämie massiv erhöhte – weit über das Szenario der Vorhersage hinaus. Die Vorhersage unterschätzte das Aufwärtspotenzial (Ziel: +1,1%; tatsächlich: ~+9% gegenüber Septemberniveau), lag aber mit der Richtung klar richtig.
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