Brazilian presidential runoff (October 25, 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) defeats Flávio Bolsonaro and is confirmed as president (confirmed by TSE by October 26, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 25. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket prices Lula at 56% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% for the runoff (as of September 5, 2026). This prediction builds on the existing open prediction that no candidate achieves an absolute first-round majority (October 4). Lula benefits from incumbency, social spending (Bolsa Família expansion), and a broader coalition (PT + centrists). Bolsonaro Jr. mobilises the loyal right but carries his father's legal baggage and the polarisation costs of the Bolsonarismo brand.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Lula wins Brazil 2026 Presidential Election = 56 % (5.9.2026)
- Polymarket: Flávio Bolsonaro wins = 40 % (5.9.2026)
- TSE Brasilien Wahlkalender: 1. Wahlgang 4.10.2026, Stichwahl 25.10.2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.