🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian presidential election second round (25 October 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) defeats Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the runoff and is re-elected (confirmed by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral by 26 October 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

58%

According to Polymarket (8 September 2026), the probability of Lula advancing to the runoff stands at 88–90% (open prediction). Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by 2–8 percentage points in late-August 2026 polls; runoff simulations show a close race within the margin of error (AS/COA Poll Tracker). As the incumbent, Lula benefits from state transfer programmes (Bolsa Família expansion) and has a structurally stable base in major cities and poorer north-eastern regions. Flávio Bolsonaro mobilises the conservative electorate more effectively than his father did in 2022, but trails Lula in runoff scenarios.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Lula zieht in Stichwahl ein – 88 % (Stand 8. September 2026)
AS/COA Poll Tracker: Lula führt Bolsonaro 2–8 PP in August-2026-Umfragen; Stichwahl-Simulation innerhalb Fehlerquote
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral: 2. Runde angesetzt für 25. Oktober 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Lula da Silva (PT) besiegte Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) im zweiten Wahlgang am 25. Oktober 2026 mit 51,79 % der gültigen Stimmen (64.256.232) gegenüber 48,21 % (59.826.041). Das Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) bestätigte Lulas Wiederwahl offiziell noch am Wahltag. Alle Kernelemente der Vorhersage – Stichwahl am 25.10.2026 zwischen genau diesen beiden Kandidaten, Sieg Lulas, TSE-Bestätigung bis 26.10.2026 – stimmen überein. Bemerkenswert: Lula hatte den ersten Wahlgang hinter Flávio Bolsonaro abgeschlossen, gewann aber die Stichwahl – ein historisches Novum in Brasilien. Quellen: TSE (tse.jus.br), InfoMoney, CNN Brasil, CNN Portugal.

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