🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian presidential runoff (October 25, 2026): Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) wins with more than 52.0% of valid votes (confirmed by TSE by October 26, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

58%

Lula's runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro is already logged as a separate platform prediction. This prediction sharpens the claim with a concrete threshold: more than 52.0% of valid votes. Lula benefits as the incumbent president from the strong PT mobilization machine, a dominant base in Brazil's northeast (typically >70% there), and popular social programs like Bolsa Família. In the 2022 runoff he won narrowly with 50.9%; in 2026 he faces the lesser-known son of Jair Bolsonaro as an established incumbent. AS/COA polls (September 2026) point to a wider margin.

Data basis for this prediction

AS/COA Brazil 2026 Poll Tracker: Lula führt in allen Umfragen vs. Flávio Bolsonaro (Sep 2026)
Americas Quarterly Kandidaten-Guide 2026 (americasquarterly.org, Sep 2026)
TSE Wahlergebnis 2022: Lula 50,9 % der gültigen Stimmen (tse.jus.br)

Verdict: Miss

Lula gewann die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 gegen Flávio Bolsonaro und wurde mit 51,79 % der gültigen Stimmen (64.256.232 Stimmen) zum Präsidenten wiedergewählt. Der TSE verkündete das offizielle Ergebnis noch am selben Abend. Die Vorhersage verlangte jedoch einen Stimmanteil von *mehr als 52,0 %*, was knapp verfehlt wurde (−0,21 Prozentpunkte). Lulas Sieg fiel enger aus als erwartet, unter anderem weil Flávio Bolsonaro den ersten Wahlgang noch klar angeführt hatte (47,03 % vs. 45,16 % für Lula) und die Mobilisierung des bolsonarischen Lagers im Stichwahl-Endspurt stärker war als prognostiziert. Quellen: TSE (tse.jus.br), Vatican News, Poliwave, Al Jazeera.

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