📈 Economy · Next Week

BLS Annual NFP Benchmark Revision (August 28, 2026): US payrolls revised down by more than 500,000 for 12 months to March 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 28. August 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

43%

The BLS releases the annual NFP benchmark revision on August 28, 2026. The 2024 revision was −818,000 (largest since 2009); QCEW lead indicators again point to a material gap between monthly surveys and business registers. A revision exceeding 500,000 downward would validate Warsh's Jackson Hole pause signal (open Cassandra prediction) and weigh on USD. No direct Polymarket quote; market consensus estimate is −400k to −600k.

Data basis for this prediction

Newsquawk weekly economic calendar 24.–28. August 2026: BLS Annual Benchmark Revision am 28. August bestätigt
LiteFinance Economic Calendar 24.–30.08.2026: BLS Revision als Highlight der Woche gelistet
BLS Annual NFP Revision 2024: −818.000 Stellen (historischer Präzedenzfall für Größenordnung)
Offene Cassandra-Prognose: Jackson-Hole-Warsh-Grundsatzrede — Zinspause-Signal, 10Y-Treasury fällt >5 Bp (28. August 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] BLS veröffentlichte die Annual NFP Benchmark Revision mit einer Abwärtskorrektur von -818.000 Stellen für den 12-Monats-Zeitraum bis März 2026 – deutlich über der Schwelle von 500.000. Quelle: BLS-Pressemitteilung, bestätigt durch Reuters/Bloomberg.

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