🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

2026 Berlin State Election: Die Linke becomes the strongest party by party-list vote share (confirmed by Berlin State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

42%

All final polls show a genuine three-way race: Die Linke at 20.7–23% (BerlinTREND/Infratest dimap, PolitPro, as of 18–19 Sep 2026) narrowly ahead of CDU (20–21%) and AfD (17–18.9%). In 5 of 6 latest polls Die Linke ranks first, but always within margin of error vs CDU. Greens (15–16%), SPD (10–12%), BSW (~3–4%), FDP (~3%) trail. No prediction markets for Berlin state elections available. The ~42% reflects the genuine three-way contest: with base odds ~25–30% each for Linke, CDU, AfD to top, Die Linke's polling lead gives a slight edge.

Data basis for this prediction

BerlinTREND / Infratest dimap, 18.09.2026: Linke 23 %, CDU 21 %, AfD 18 %, Grüne 16 %, SPD 12 %
PolitPro, 19.09.2026: Linke 20,7 %, CDU 20,5 %, AfD 17,0 %
Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election – projected seat distribution Linke 31, CDU 30, AfD 27
Euronews, 19.09.2026: 'Tense Berlin election finale: who is to emerge strongest in the capital?'

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 wurde Die Linke mit 25,7 % der Zweitstimmen erstmals stärkste Kraft, deutlich vor CDU (18,8 %), AfD (16,3 %), Grüne (14,3 %) und SPD (12,1 %). Quellen: bpb.de ('Die Linke wird erstmals stärkste Kraft'), Wikipedia (Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026), Al Jazeera ('Far left wins Berlin state election'), wahlen-berlin.de (offizielle Bezirksergebnisse).

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