🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) Fails the 5% Threshold and Does Not Enter the State Parliament

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

80%

PolitPro and dawum.de currently place BSW in Berlin at 4.0% (as of September 18, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. The party lacks the voter base in Berlin that it has built in eastern German states (Thuringia, Saxony). None of the polls over the past four weeks reliably placed BSW above 4.5%, and a direct mandate rescue is ruled out for lack of constituency base. No dedicated prediction market available; calibrated solely on polling data.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro/dawum.de Berliner Wahlumfragen: BSW 4,0 % (Stand 18. September 2026)
Wikipedia 2026 Berlin state election – Polling summary September 2026 (abgerufen 19. September 2026)
Wahlrecht.de Umfragen Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin – kein Wert über 4,5 % für BSW in 4 Wochen

Verdict: Hit

BSW erhielt bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,7 % der Stimmen und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5-%-Sperrklausel. Die Partei zog nicht ins Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Die Vorhersage traf vollständig ein, obwohl das tatsächliche Ergebnis (4,7 %) etwas höher lag als die prognostizierten ~4,0 % laut Umfragen. Quellen: Brussels Signal ('Die Linke wins Berlin election as CDU vote collapses', 21.09.2026), Octagon AI ('BSW's Berlin Election Miss'), Wikipedia DE ('Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026').

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