Bank of Japan raises its policy rate to at least 1.25% by October 31, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0% on June 16, 2026 — the highest since 1995. Bloomberg analysts expect two hikes in 2026; the first came in June. The second hike to 1.25% is expected by BOJ watchers for H2 2026 (Bloomberg: 'BOJ watchers see two rate hikes in 2026'). Supporting factors: persistent yen weakness (USD/JPY ~161.6, 40-year low), stubborn core inflation, political pressure after the Upper House election (July 20). Next BOJ meetings: July 30/31, September, October 2026 — three opportunities before October 31. Risk: BOJ normalizes more cautiously and delays to December 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: BoJ hebt Leitzins auf 1,0 % – höchster Stand seit 1995 (16.06.2026)
- Bloomberg: 'BOJ watchers see two rate hikes in 2026, starting with next week' (09.06.2026)
- Federal Reserve H.10: USD/JPY 161,6150 – Yen nahe 40-Jahres-Tief (10.07.2026)
- FXStreet BOJ Interest Rate Decision 2026 Calendar Forecast
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Bank of Japan hob ihren Leitzins am 18. September 2026 um 25 Basispunkte auf 1,25 % an. Am 30. Oktober 2026 hielt die BOJ den Satz bei 1,25 % (8-1-Abstimmung). Die Vorhersage, dass der Leitzins bis zum 31. Oktober 2026 mindestens 1,25 % erreicht, ist damit eingetreten – der zweite Zinsschritt des Jahres 2026 erfolgte im September statt im Oktober oder Juli. Quellen: fattail.ai ('Bank of Japan Rate Decision October 2026: Hawkish Hold'), ebc.com ('BOJ Rate Decision: Why a Hold at 1.25% Could Signal a December Hike'), Bloomberg ('BOJ Is Said to Lean Against Back-to-Back Rate Hike in October').
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