📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of Japan holds key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% on July 31, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

97%

Polymarket shows 99% probability of a hold (volume $315k, as of July 26, 2026). The BoJ hiked from 0.75% to 1.00% in June 2026 and signalled a pause. Core CPI ~2.3%, USD/JPY ~162–163, global tariff headwinds counsel caution. Another hike in July is near-certain to be skipped.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: BoJ Rate Decision Juli 2026 – 99 % Hold, $315k Volumen (26.07.2026)
Investing.com: BoJ Zinsentscheid Juni 2026 – +25 bp auf 1,00 %
USD/JPY Spot ~162–163 JPY/USD (Bloomberg, Stand 24.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of Japan hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 exakt wie vorhergesagt bei 1,00 % unverändert (Abstimmung 8:1). Bloomberg bestätigte die Entscheidung als erwartungsgemäß. Die BoJ hatte den Zins im Juni 2026 von 0,75 % auf 1,00 % angehoben und wollte nun die Auswirkungen beobachten, bevor ein weiterer Schritt erfolgt. Quellen: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/bank-of-japan-holds-interest-rate-steady-at-1-as-expected), Focus Economics (https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/monetary-policy/japan-central-bank-meeting-31-07-2026-bank-of-japan-holds-rates-in-july/), BabyPips (https://www.babypips.com/news/headline-boj-interest-rate-decision-july-2026-yen-intervention)

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