📈 Economy
· Next Month
Bank of Japan raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the September 17–18, 2026 monetary policy meeting (confirmed by BOJ press release or Bloomberg by September 18, 2026)
Probability
67%
The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.00% in H1 2026. Japanese OIS futures imply 60.7–85% probability of a further 25bp hike at the September 18 meeting. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino signaled on August 27/28, 2026 that the BOJ will consider a hike 'at every meeting, including the next one' and flagged 'upside risks to prices.' Tokyo CPI August 2026 (core ex. fresh food: +1.8% YoY) sits close to the 2% target. The weak US labor market (August NFP +22,000) argues for some caution but is insufficient to override BOJ's domestic inflation mandate.
Data basis for this prediction
- OIS-Futures Japan: 60,7–85% Zinserhöhungswahrscheinlichkeit Sep. 2026 (centralbank.watch / rateprobability.com, Sep. 2026)
- BOJ-Vize-Gouverneur Himino: Zinserhöhung auf jeder Sitzung geprüft (Nippon.com, 28. Aug. 2026)
- Tokyo CPI August 2026: Kerninflation +1,8% YoY (Statistics Bureau Japan / Investing.com, Aug. 2026)
- Japan Times: Ehem. BOJ-Beamter – 'Grundlage für September-Zinserhöhung gelegt' (25. Aug. 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.