Bank of Japan raises policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% on October 30, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. September 2026
·
Predicted for 30. October 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate (Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate) to 1.25% on September 18, 2026 in a 7-2 vote — the highest level in 31 years. TONA futures pricing (CentralBank.Watch) implies ~84% probability of a further hike at the October meeting (October 29–30). Drivers: persistent Japanese wage-price dynamics, rising inflation expectations above the 2% target, and BoJ board members Takata and Noguchi as advocates for acceleration. FXStreet reported: 'BoJ still on course for October hike.' The previous Bloomberg consensus scenario ('next hike in October') was partly shifted by the September move, but TONA pricing continues to lean toward October. Downside risk: the narrow 7-2 vote and global uncertainty (Iran war, US tariffs) could push the next move to December; Polymarket showed estimates in a wide band (22–78%). Calibrated at 67% accounting for market divergence.
Data basis for this prediction
- TONA-Terminmarkt: ~84 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für Oktober-Zinserhöhung, implizierte Rate 1,71 % bis 30.10. (CentralBank.Watch, 21.09.2026)
- BoJ hebt Leitzins auf 1,25 % (31-Jahres-Hoch), Votum 7-2 (CNBC, 18.09.2026)
- FXStreet: 'Bank of Japan still on course for October hike' (Sep 2026)
- Polymarket: BoJ Oktober-Entscheidung — Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit 22–78 % (breite Marktdivergenz, Stand Sep 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoJ hielt den Leitzins unverändert bei 1,25%; keine Anhebung auf 1,50% erfolgt (8:1-Entscheid). Quelle: Bloomberg
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.