📈 Economy · Next Month

Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the monetary policy meeting on September 18, 2026 (confirmed by BOJ press release or Reuters/Bloomberg)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 1. September 2026 · Predicted for 18. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

57%

Japanese money market futures currently price approximately 57% probability for a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the BOJ meeting on September 18, 2026, according to Bloomberg. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino explicitly kept the door open for a September move in late August. Japan's core CPI was +2.3% YoY in July 2026 — clearly above the 2% target. The BOJ last raised rates in June 2026 to 1.00% (highest since 1995, CNBC). Countervailing risks: yen appreciation pressure and global growth uncertainties could favor a delay.

Data basis for this prediction

Bloomberg: BOJ-Marktwahrscheinlichkeit September-Hike ~57 % (Stand August 2026)
Bloomberg: BOJ-Vizegouverneur Himino hält September-Zinsschritt offen (27. August 2026)
CNBC: BOJ hebt Leitzins auf 1,0 % — höchster Stand seit 1995 (Juni 2026)
Japan Kern-CPI Juli 2026: +2,3 % YoY

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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