Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises its policy rate to 1.25% by October 31, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The BOJ currently holds the policy rate at 1.00%. For the July 30-31 meeting, centralbank.watch puts the probability of a move at only ~4%. For September and October 2026, futures markets price in >60% probability of a further 25bp hike to 1.25% (ING, June 2026). BOJ board member Tamura publicly advocates hikes 'every few months' toward a neutral rate of ~2%. The June 2026 BOJ Watchers Survey expects two rate hikes in 2026 as the base case. Political uncertainty after the LDP coalition's upper house defeat (July 20) may create short-term caution but is unlikely to permanently derail the normalization path.
Data basis for this prediction
- centralbank.watch BOJ Rate Probability (Stand 18. Juli 2026): 96 % Halten am 30./31. Juli 2026
- ING Think (Juni 2026): 'Further Bank of Japan hikes expected but not imminent' – Oktober als wahrscheinlichster Termin, >60 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit
- Bloomberg (9. Juni 2026): 'BOJ Watchers See Two Rate Hikes in 2026, Starting With Next Week'
- Japan Times (2. Juli 2026): Sinkender Yen und robuste Konjunktur stärken BOJ-Argumente für frühere Erhöhung
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Die Bank of Japan erhöhte ihren Leitzins am 18. September 2026 von 1,00 % auf exakt 1,25 % – das höchste Niveau seit 1995 (Quelle: UPI.com, Japan Times, 18.09.2026). Bei der darauffolgenden Sitzung am 30. Oktober 2026 hielt die BOJ den Satz bei 1,25 % unverändert (8-1-Abstimmung, hawkish hold), da die Kerninflation erstmals seit Einführung des 2 %-Ziels 2013 als erreicht bewertet wurde (Quelle: financecalendar.com, fuw.ch). Der Leitzins stand damit am 31. Oktober 2026 bei genau 1,25 % – die Vorhersage traf exakt zu, wenn auch via September-Sitzung statt Oktober-Sitzung.
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