Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises its policy rate to 1.25% by October 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The BOJ currently holds the policy rate at 1.00%. For the July 30-31 meeting, centralbank.watch puts the probability of a move at only ~4%. For September and October 2026, futures markets price in >60% probability of a further 25bp hike to 1.25% (ING, June 2026). BOJ board member Tamura publicly advocates hikes 'every few months' toward a neutral rate of ~2%. The June 2026 BOJ Watchers Survey expects two rate hikes in 2026 as the base case. Political uncertainty after the LDP coalition's upper house defeat (July 20) may create short-term caution but is unlikely to permanently derail the normalization path.
Data basis for this prediction
- centralbank.watch BOJ Rate Probability (Stand 18. Juli 2026): 96 % Halten am 30./31. Juli 2026
- ING Think (Juni 2026): 'Further Bank of Japan hikes expected but not imminent' – Oktober als wahrscheinlichster Termin, >60 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit
- Bloomberg (9. Juni 2026): 'BOJ Watchers See Two Rate Hikes in 2026, Starting With Next Week'
- Japan Times (2. Juli 2026): Sinkender Yen und robuste Konjunktur stärken BOJ-Argumente für frühere Erhöhung
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.