📈 Economy
· Next Month
Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the September 17–18, 2026 meeting (confirmed by BOJ press release or Bloomberg)
Probability
60%
The BOJ held at 1.00% on July 31, 2026 (8-1 decision; dissenter Takata called for 1.25%). MUFG Research explicitly projects a hike to 1.25% in September 2026. Reuters sources reported the BOJ is 'eyeing September rate hike.' Market-implied probability: ~53% per centralbank.watch, other sources up to 80%. Core inflation remains 'clearly above 2%' per BOJ; the tightening path is structurally intact.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC, 31. Juli 2026: 'BOJ holds rates at 1%, warns core inflation exceeding 2% target' (8:1-Entscheidung)
- Reuters/Investing.com: 'BOJ eyeing September rate hike, faster pace of tightening, sources say'
- MUFG Research, 17. August 2026: Japan Economic & Financial Weekly – erwartet BOJ-Hike auf 1,25% September
- BOJ Watch Tool (centralbank.watch/bank-of-japan): Market-implied Prob. ~53% für 25bp-Hike September 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.